I think the recent comments by Steve Jobs have been well documented. I don’t discount his evaluation of Flash. It’s his opinion and it’s his company. He should be able to do what he wants. However, Job’s is putting a lot of money on one factor he has no control over. Developers. Dare I say that Steve Ballmer was right? It’s Developer, Developers, Developers!
As a technologist I think it’s absolutely absurd to say that the adoption rate of HTML will be non-existent. I wrote a Blog post back in January 2009 arguing that Silverlight would be adopted in spite of Flash. I still feel the same holds true for HTML 5. If you make an application ‘cool’ enough they will come. I think that HTML 5 has real promise.
The problem will be the adoption rate by developers. Apple does not have enough market share to convince me to convert to HTML 5. That doesn’t mean that it will not. It just means that in the foreseeable future I have no plans to replace my Silverlight or Flash plugins by implementing HTML 5. Completing an asp.net site will pretty much cost me as much as doing a Silverlight based site. In fact, my UX guys will probably use Adobe Photoshop to do most of the images so including Flash probably won’t be that much either!
Secondly, I would argue that Apple is approaching a new phase in its life as a product company. For the longest time Apple has enjoyed a dedicated following, otherwise known as ‘Fanboys’. Remember your old art teacher in grade school with the Mac? I bet he/she is still a rabid Mac fan. Unfortunately Apple is beginning to appeal to the masses. They are no longer a niche player in the world of computing. I know countless Apple converts who until recently could only brag about the sleekness of Apple products. Now they complain about compatibility, battery life and gasp!, crashes and viruses.
The point is that Apple will eventually need to cater to these new expectations and user base. Even if only some of them. They have a taste of success and they are going to want to keep it, if not for the sake of their shareholders. At some point they may have to, and should, listen to their customer needs. Including the support for Flash and Silverlight might be one of the many things they need to do. It will be the converts that lead the growth for Apple not the current base of dedicated art teachers!